3. Procedure SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): Axiom Health then evaluated which patients, of the 374,000, had yet to have steroid injections or RF ablation, as doing so made them ineligible for insurance coverage for an actual fusion. There were 78,000 patients in this pool, yielding in a SOM of 296,000.

4. Actual Procedure Volume and Growth: Axiom Health determined that, in 2022, 22,000 patients had SI joint fusions. The procedure volumes had grown at 22% CAGR over the preceding five years. Axiom projected 15% growth between 2023 and 2027.

5. ASP and Revenue Determination: Axiom’s analysis showcased a decrease in case ASPs over the previous five years, from $9,993 to $8,449 between 2017 and 2022. Despite this ASP contraction, during this time, overall revenue grew at a 19% CAGR. Axiom predicted revenue growth to slow to a 12% CAGR between 2023 and 2027.

6. Market Share Evaluation: With 32 companies offering lateral fusion solutions, Axiom Health assessed which among them held meaningfully large market share. Market share was not only relevant for revenue projections, but it was also used as a proxy for clinical acceptance. The chargemaster analysis used natural language processing (NLP) to reveal a few small companies with good market share; this information confirmed that the client could buy (and not build) the product, allowing them to enter the market more quickly.

9,863,000

44,200

22,000

Projected SI Joint

Fusions in 2027 (15% CAGR)

SI Joint Fusions in 2022

$9,993

$8,449

2017 ASP (Per Case Hardware)

2022 ASP (Per Case Hardware)

6

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